The Annual Hunt

[Aaron Burr]

Well? Out with it my little street Arabs. Should I finally kill Bigfoot this season or not?

[Zonga]

Yea, and hurry.

Don't forget I'm getting a fur coat out of this, so don't shoot him too many times

Is there someone local who can tan the hide?

[Uncle Al]

The fact that you haven't gotten him yet means that statistically, this is the year.

Actually, no. You have a time series with the same event condition repeated identically multiple times. The trend line has a slope of zero within a 95% confidence interval of +/- zero. Statistically, you're likely to come up empty again this year.

If you meant "probabilistically" instead of "statistically" the answer is the same. Probability has no memory, and seeing how you've come up empty each time in the past, we have no measure of the probability you'll get him on any given hunt. We can estimate, however, that the probability is less than 1/(hunts*2) or you'd've bagged the critter by now. So, probabilistically, you're still likely to come up empty again this year.

But, hey, don't let me discourage you from your heroic quest.

[Ironsmith]

Look, that sumbitch has my riding mower, and I fuggin want it back! Those spinners and hydraulics werent cheap, not to mention the flat screen entertainment system and air conditioning I had installed.

There's been no more sightings of that squatch or my mower after that fiasco with the pawn shop when they low balled him on the price when he tried to hock it for booze money. They installed bars and safety glass at the liquor store so no more smash and grab runs for that bastard.

The point is try and hit the bigfoot this time, I really dont want any more bullet holes in the Cub Cadet.

[Mr. T]

Well? Out with it my little street Arabs. Should I finally kill Bigfoot this season or not?

Look you can kill bigfoot, but you must remember that this guys family and how they breed like rabbits. You will be in need of a ample supply of ammunition. Lets just have some fun with it this year and order in a air strike and burn the whole mountain down. It is a lot cheaper than having to pay for all of that brass.

[Ironsmith]

Hey! Remember I own property on those mountains! Just let me know which one so I can NOT be at home and call up the insurance before you nuke it from orbit.

[spirit of Ronald Reagan]

Sasquatch's supposed to be in NC the middle of next week.

First lady to make public campaign stop in Triad

[Aaron Burr]

No no. I'm after the vegan variety. The meat eating ones have razor sharp teeth and smell like ass.

Also: "Actually, no. You have a time series with the same event condition repeated identically multiple times. The trend line has a slope of zero within a 95% confidence interval of +/- zero. Statistically, you're likely to come up empty again this year.

If you meant "probabilistically" instead of "statistically" the answer is the same."

The event conditions are always different. Different terrain, different weather, different tribe or other family unit every time. However, since I am approaching this hunt systematically, I have to assume that Bigfoot is not where I was last hunt. I can't be everywhere at once. Therefore I have to leave a huge, thousand acre burnt patch to remind me that I've already been to that location.

Look at this way, let's say there's some guy trapped in the trunk of your car. You can't see him so you're not really sure if he's in there or not. You can't open the trunk or he'll escape. The only solution is to pump as many bullits into the trunk as you can until you're reasonable sure it's safe to open the trunk and check to see if he is actually indeed, in there.

But yeah, I agree about the proba-ballistics. I'm leaning towards a muzzle loading .50 caliber.

[Uncle Al]

... I'm leaning towards a muzzle loading .50 caliber.

I respectfully suggest that instead of a .50 caliber gun you instead use a 50 caliber gun. It is a bit heavier so I recommend not firing it from the shoulder.

[Uncle Al]

...The event conditions are always different. Different terrain, different weather, different tribe or other family unit every time...

I should have been clearer. The hunt conditions are indeed always different, but the event condition I referred to is the Boolean value of the success of each hunt in the series.